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Crisis overcome? The differences are in the details



Crisis overcome?  The differences are in the details

FC Bayern Munich has long since left its earnings crisis behind. In the last six competitive games there have been six wins with 20:4 goals. But why are things going better in the Bundesliga now than in the five games without a win last season? SPOX and GOAL do the data check.

FC Bayern Munich is back on track. 5-0 against the high-flyers SC Freiburg, 6-2 against 1. FSV Mainz 05, who are way up in the table, and Bayern are still only victorious in the Champions League.

It seems as if the record champion learned from his earnings crisis a few weeks ago. But what exactly? When asked about the current system, Julian Nagelsmann emphasized after the 3-0 win in Barcelona that they had “always played similarly” this season. Now, compared to before, only the results would be correct. Hardly any changes, says the coach.

Joshua Kimmich made a similar statement at the press conference before the duel with Inter Milan. “It’s no coincidence that we’re in the flow,” said the midfielder: “Of course, the results didn’t quite fit before, but the way it was done wasn’t that bad either – or a process in the right direction.”

SPOX and GOAL look into the Opta-Data from FBref: Is there a difference from before? For this we compare the four draws and the defeat at FC Augsburg with the last five competitive wins. The cup victory in Augsburg is not included due to a lack of data. The results of the compared games at a glance:

  • Earnings Crisis: 1-1 against Gladbach, 1-1 at Union, 2-2 against Stuttgart, 0-1 in Augsburg, 2-2 in Dortmund
  • Five wins: 4-2 in Pilsen, 5-0 against Freiburg, 2-0 at Hoffenheim, 3-0 in Barcelona, ​​6-2 against Mainz

FC Bayern: Clear differences in the offensive

Even when looking at the most important offensive data, the first small differences become apparent. During the earnings crisis, Bayern had significantly more possession and more of their own deals. This is partly due to the fact that the opponents’ style of play was more offensive than in the winless games. FC Barcelona stands out with 52 percent ball possession against Bayern.

Nevertheless, the Munich team had a lower expected goals value (xG) than last time. One reason for this was that goals were often sought from bad positions. On average, you completed more distance from two meters than now.

FC Bayern: performance data on the offensive

Statistics per 90 minutes Results crisis (five games) The last five games
possession 68.2% 61.6%
degrees 20.2 18
Average distance (in m) 16.9 14.8
Expected Goals 1.7 2.5
Gates 1.2 4

The fact that Bayern only scored 1.2 goals per 90 minutes in the unsuccessful games was not only due to bad luck and a crisis in form, but also to the fact that less valuable chances were created. And that despite the fact that Munich had significantly more ball contacts in the attack third than now – namely 271 compared to 197 per 90 minutes.

With better results now, it could be hypothesized that Bayern are better at picking their attacks and have made progress in running the ball through their own defenses and midfield. On the other hand, it must also be noted here that with Barça, Freiburg, Mainz and Hoffenheim there were four teams that put more defensive demands on the record champions. In addition, some games were decided early, which is why there was no longer any need to take a big risk on the offensive.

FC Bayern: performance data in ball possession

Statistics per 90 minutes Results crisis (five games) The last five games
passports 686 614
forward passes 55 40
accuracy 84.5% 85.7%
Ball contacts attacking third 271 197
Ball contacts midfield 374 317
Ball contacts third of defense 266 331

FC Bayern: Defensively more stable – but also with more luck

Being more challenged defensively means, among other things, having less possession – and that applies to this comparison. Bayern seems to be a little better in defense. Not only has the number of goals conceded almost halved, but xG per opponent’s shot has also decreased – 0.09 compared to 0.12.

And this despite the fact that the distance to the goal for opposing teams is on average two meters shorter than during the results crisis. However, the positions and the types of degrees are less promising. So Bayern has stabilized further in defence. However, they also conceded significantly more goals than could have been expected based on the quality of the shot. In this respect, the crisis was overrated in many places.

FC Bayern: performance data on the defensive

Statistics per 90 minutes Results crisis (five games) The last five games
Opponent’s finishes 8th 10
Average distance (in m) 17.2 15.3
Expected goals against 1 0.9
goals conceded 1.4 0.8
Mistakes that lead to the shot 0.8 0.6

Similar to the offensive area, it must be stated that luck plays a role. Back then, Bayern not only scored significantly fewer goals than could have been expected, but also conceded a lot more goals – sometimes with the opponent’s first good chance. This also influences the data to a certain extent. After all, a team with a 2-0 lead plays differently than with a 0-1 deficit.

During the earnings crisis, Nagelsmann’s team managed almost 19 crosses per 90 minutes. Now there are 13. Back then, Bayern had to take risks in more phases of the game or sometimes use the crowbar to get into the opponent’s penalty area. At times, it was perhaps too hectic. In the comparison group, there are more games that they controlled and could approach with a comfortable lead behind them. In this respect, the comparison of the data alone should not be overrated – but they do provide insights into an exciting development.