After the move from Robert Lewandowski, FC Bayern no longer has a real goalscorer in their ranks. In the Bundesliga, Jamal Musiala leads the internal ranking. However, a look at the understat.com database, which calculates an expected goals value for every goal chance, shows that another FCB player should be at the top of the list.
First of all: The meaning of expected goals can of course be disputed. Nevertheless, the popular analysis tool provides guidelines that can at least be used as a guide.
The xG value is in most cases more meaningful than the classic goal shot statistic, in which a post hit from close range is worth as much as a harmless attempt from a distance.
Only players who have scored a goal for FC Bayern this Bundesliga season are considered in this xGoals ranking.
Benjamin Pavard – 13th place
Position: Defense | real stats: 1 goal, 1 assist in 20 appearances
xG value: 0.63 goals, 2.59 assists
So Pavard performed 0.37 better in front of goal than expected.
Matthijs de Ligt – 12th place
Position: Defense | real stats: 2 goals, 0 assists in 20 appearances
xG value: 0.68 goals (0.18 assists)
Marcel Sabitzer – 11th place
Position: Midfield | real stats: 1 goal, 1 assists in 15 appearances
xG value: 1.03 goals (0.28 assists)
The loan deal with Manchester United will not change anything in Sabitzer’s statistics this season.
Joshua Kimmich – 10th place
Position: Midfield | real stats: 3 goals, 4 assists in 22 appearances
xG value: 1.06 goals (3.62 assists)
Mathy’s Tel – 9th place
Position: attack | real stats: 4 goals, 0 assists in 14 appearances
xG value: 2.07 goals (0.31 assists)
Kingsley Coman – 8th place
Position: attack | real stats: 5 goals, 4 assists in 16 appearances
xG value: 3.48 goals (3.33 assists)
Leon Goretzka – 7th place
Position: Midfield | real stats: 3 goals, 1 assist in 18 appearances
xG value: 4.35 goals (2.47 assists)
For the first time, Goretzka has scored fewer goals than expected. According to the expected goals value, he should have scored at least once more often.
Leroy Sané – 6th place
Position: attack | real stats: 6 goals, 3 assists in 21 appearances
xG value: 5.04 goals (3.75 assists)
Thomas Müller – 5th place
Position: attack | real stats: 4 goals, 7 assists in 16 appearances
xG value: 5.14 goals (5.53 assists)
Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting – 4th place
Position: attack | real stats: 10 goals, 2 assists in 17 appearances
xG value: 7.29 goals (2.02 assists)
The highest difference so far: Choupo-Moting should only have appeared on the scoreboard seven times according to the Expected Goals value, but only three Bayern players had a better chance of scoring more goals.
Serge Gnabry – 3rd place
Position: attack | real stats: 9 goals, 4 assists in 23 appearances
xG value: 7.39 goals (3.97 assists)
Jamal Musiala – 2nd place
Position: attack | real stats: 11 goals, 8 assists in 22 appearances
xG value: 7.65 goals (4.92 assists)
With a difference of 3.35, Musiala is FC Bayern’s biggest “overperformer” this season. On the other hand, that can also be seen as high quality: The 20-year-old scores goals that shouldn’t actually be – such as when he leaves several opponents before the end.
Sadio Mané – 1st place
Position: attack | real stats: 6 goals, 3 assists in 16 appearances
xG value: 8.89 goals (3.16 assists)
In the official top scorer list, Mané is just fifth. With a little more luck, he could have scored around nine goals according to the expected goals value. After surviving the injury break, he may be able to adjust the value in the coming weeks.
