The duel between Dortmund and Bayern currently outshines everything in the Bundesliga. Of course, it’s also about the title! But it’s also worth taking a look at the other places, because there’s a lot at stake everywhere this coming Saturday.
The 34th matchday of the 2022/23 season is a tough one, because at least one team is playing in each of the nine stadiums that is still playing to crown or save their season.
BVB and FCB are fighting for the title, Union and Freiburg for fourth place and thus the Champions League premiere. Leverkusen, Wolfsburg and Frankfurt want to go to Europe or at least the Conference League. Augsburg wants to avoid relegation – and then there’s the relegation battle: Stuttgart, Bochum and Schalke don’t want to be the second direct relegation team next to Hertha BSC.
Here comes the overview with all scenarios and the urgently needed clarification for 7th place.
Bundesliga showdown: Special case 7th place
In the three-way battle between Bayer Leverkusen, VfL Wolfsburg and Eintracht Frankfurt before matchday 34, it is still possible to finish sixth, seventh and eighth, with Frankfurt having the worst starting position. However, Eintracht has the cup final against RB Leipzig in hand (June 3rd), which has an impact on the European Cup places, because depending on Frankfurt’s final placement, 7th place is a safe international starting place even before the final in Berlin.
IF…
… Frankfurt comes in 6th, Eintracht will play in the Europa League, the team in 7th place will start in the playoffs for the Conference League next season.
… Frankfurt finishes 7th, Eintracht and the team are 6th in the European competition. The only question is: who in which? Answer: Frankfurt in the event of a cup win, the team in 6th place in the event of Eintracht losing in Berlin.
Should Eintracht finish 8th and lose the cup final, they would not be represented internationally in the coming season. The table-6. would dem -5. follow in the EL, the table-7. start in the conference league playoffs.
That’s what it’s about: Hertha has been relegated and is definitely bottom of the table, while Wolves can finish anywhere between 6th and 8th place, which means: They either get into the Europa League or the Conference League or they look at the mountains with their stovepipe. If you win, you get 7th place (see above). Special case 7th place) secure. If Leverkusen doesn’t win in Bochum at the same time, 6th place and thus the EL is in it. In the event of a defeat and a win by Frankfurt against Freiburg, VfL is technically out of Europe.
Union Berlin (59 points/4th place) – Werder Bremen (36 points/12th place)
That’s what it’s about: Werder managed to stay up in the league and, in the worst case, can slip down to 14th place.
For Union, the long-distance duel with Freiburg is about the big question of millions: Champions League or “only” Europa League? The calculation is very simple: Since both are tied, it should be enough for the Irons to match the Freiburg result in Frankfurt, because their goal difference is four goals better.
That’s what it’s about: For Eintracht for EL or Conference League, for Freiburg for the first participation in the Champions League! Frankfurt’s performance depends on the support of Hertha in Wolfsburg and Bochum against Leverkusen. Sixth place is doable if Wolves and Leverkusen lose, with the latter having a significantly better goal difference than Hessen (+11 vs. +5). If it is 7th place, Eintracht would have a place in the European Cup: if you win the cup, you would get into the EL, if you lose against Leipzig, this seventh place would become the springboard for the Conference League.
And Fribourg? Since Union is four goals better than Breisgau, they are in the CL as soon as they score more points than Berlin on matchday 34.
That’s what it’s about: For Borussia a conciliatory conclusion and a mannerly farewell for captain Lars Stindl. For the FCA, it is about nothing less than staying up, although a crash in 17th place is only conceivable in theory. 16th place and thus the relegation against HSV or Heidenheim are relatively easy to achieve: Augsburg only has to lose, while Stuttgart and Bochum win – and you would be 16th. On the other hand, winning a point should be enough for at least 15th place, because then only VfB could pass because Bochum’s goal difference is so devastating, namely 16 goals worse than FCA.
That’s what it’s about: Thanks to the three at Bayern, RBL is third and definitely qualified for the Champions League. On June 3rd, Marco Rose and Co. can gild the season with another triumph in the DFB Cup final. Opponent in Berlin is Frankfurt.
For Schalke it’s about everything. Mathematically, it’s relatively easy: If Schalke wins and both Stuttgart and Bochum don’t, you keep the class directly as 15. If one of the two opponents wins, Schalke can only achieve relegation. One point would be enough if Bochum loses. Because: Schalke has the slightly less bad goal difference in the duel (-34 vs. -35).
That’s what it’s about: We start with Leverkusen. The Werkself will definitely remain in 6th place with a win and thus reach the Europa League. In the event of a draw or defeat, Wolfsburg could pass, which could mean the end of the European Cup.
Bochum stays in class if VfL wins and Stuttgart doesn’t win or Augsburg loses OR VfL draws and Stuttgart loses and Schalke doesn’t win.
That’s what it’s about: The scenario that Hoffenheim would crash on the relegation place is so theoretical that we simply want to forget it.
So to VfB: The Swabians keep the class when they win. POINT. A draw is enough if neither Schalke nor Bochum wins. Of course, a defeat is enough even if the pursuers also go away empty-handed.
1. FC Köln (42 points/10th place) – FC Bayern Munich (69 points/2nd place)
That’s what it’s about: Cologne has done its job, Bayern are no longer in their own hands. This much is certain: If Bayern lose, they will definitely not be German champions. In the event of a draw in Munich, BVB would have to lose their home game against Mainz; in the event of a Munich win, BVB may not win. As simple as that!
That’s what it’s about: Mainz has finally buried its European ambitions with the 1:4 against Stuttgart, but does not want to surrender without a fight in Dortmund. And BVB? One win and the championship title is perfect! A draw and Bayern can’t win. A defeat and Bayern have to lose too.
