Liverpool FC can look back on a disastrous season so far. If the Reds end up missing out on qualifying for the Champions League, there are several horror scenarios. The transfers of desired players wobble enormously, long-time top performers could leave the club. An overview.
After Liverpool played for every title last season, there will be no silverware for coach Jürgen Klopp’s team this season. The dream of a title finally ended with the knockout round in the Champions League against Real Madrid.
But the concern is even greater that the Reds will miss out on participation in the premier class, which is so important for the club’s standing. The gap to fourth-placed Tottenham Hotspur is currently seven points.
However, Liverpool FC can be encouraged by the fact that they have two games less than Spurs on their account. However, the upcoming tasks are really challenging. Manchester City, Chelsea and leaders Arsenal are waiting.
Klopp has already described the game series as a “decisive week”. On April 9th, it will be clear whether his team still has a chance of conquering a place in the European elite.
If that doesn’t work, there are colossal consequences. SPOX and GOAL take a look at the worrying situation Liverpool find themselves in.
Liverpool FC: Money rules the world
It’s impossible to start anywhere else. The Champions League may be the most prestigious competition in club football, but above all it is the most lucrative.
Liverpool earned more than 122 million euros by reaching the 2021/22 final and conceded over 42 million euros this time, although it was already over in the round of 16. Entering the final again would have flushed a similarly high amount into the coffers.
Add to that the ‘coefficient payout’ which will bring the Reds almost €37m thanks to their third place in the rankings, and the broadcast revenues, of which 50% goes to the national associations and 50% in proportion to the number of games each club plays in the Bundesliga competition are paid out, the financial incentives are obvious.
“That (a finish in the top four) is always our goal at the start of the season,” Billy Hogan, the Reds’ general manager, told the club earlier this year Picture. “Obviously qualifying is important because we can generate a lot of revenue in the Champions League. But the way we run the club is to ensure we’re as sustainable as possible. You can’t automatically rely on leave the Champions League qualification.”
Nonetheless, Liverpool have been able to count on Champions League earnings in each of the last six seasons – and that has played a huge part in the club’s growth, with revenue reaching €674m in the latest published accounts.
However, the club’s overall profit was relatively small at just €8.5m before tax. And while owner John W. Henry says he’s confident there will be developments in terms of new investment, losing a revenue stream as lucrative as the Champions League, even for just one season, would have a big impact.
This was also reflected in the recent past at Arsenal FC and Manchester United after they fell off the road to success. Liverpool also threatens to be sidelined again if they miss the premier class.
Liverpool FC: Will the desired transfers fall by the wayside?
Without the Champions League, Liverpool FC is automatically a much less attractive target for the best players in the world – and as is well known, the Reds want to use this shelf.
A number of high-profile professionals have been traded at the Reds over the past few weeks and months. One name has always hung at the top of the list: Jude Bellingham.
Jude Bellingham: Transfer is a long way off
The Borussia Dortmund midfielder was a transfer target for the Reds last summer, but signing the 19-year-old is a top priority after this season. But the competition is fierce.
There are now many indications that Liverpool could face disappointment at Bellingham. How The Athletic reported, Real Madrid and Manchester City are currently ahead in the tug of war for the BVB star.
Finances, of course, play a role. Bellingham would probably cost well over 100 million euros if BVB were not surprisingly able to agree on a contract extension with him. The fact that the Reds are currently unable to lure with the Champions League greatly reduces the chances of signing one of the best talents in the world. Especially since all other top clubs can serve with it.
Due to the lack of planning security, Liverpool is in a much worse negotiating position with the Bellingham side than Real or ManCity. Even in Dortmund it would be possible for him to experience the legendary CL anthem live in the coming season.
Klopp has also already announced that the search for new players must continue even if it is not yet clear which European competition one is going to take part in.
Liverpool FC: upheaval in the summer hopeless
Bellingham aside, it’s clear Liverpool need more than one signing in midfield alone in the summer. James Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Naby Keita are all out of contract.
The future of Jordan Henderson (2025), Fabinho (2026), Thiago (24), Curtis Jones (2027), Harvey Elliott (2027) and Fabio Carvalho (2027) is for different reasons (performance, fitness, offers from other clubs) also not 100% sure.
Liverpool FC: Long list of candidates
Liverpool are said to have a long list of potential candidates as a result, but how many of those would be dependent on qualifying for the Champions League? For example, would Declan Rice, Moises Caicedo, Mason Mount or Nicolo Barella be willing to play a season in the Europa League or Europa Conference League? Will Matheus Nunes or Alexis Mac Allister turn down offers from Champions League clubs for Liverpool?
You can get a detailed overview of the rumors here.
With Casemiro, Manchester United have proven that it is possible to sign top-class players without participating in the Champions League. The horrendous expenses of Chelsea FC, currently in tenth place, suggest that participation in the Champions League is not absolutely necessary.
However, in the past, Liverpool only digged deep into their pockets when corresponding income (prize money, player sales) was generated. Without the security of the Champions League funds, it is therefore not possible to plan properly. A transfer from the wish list is therefore not yet in sight.
Liverpool FC: what will be the source of income?
So how does the Klopp team get money? In recent years, Liverpool FC have benefited in particular from their loan policy, whereby players keep or increase their value elsewhere before they are ultimately sold.
Players like Neco Williams, Rhian Brewster, Harry Wilson, Marko Grujic, Ryan Kent and Taiwo Awoniyi have brought the Reds big bucks despite never playing a real role in the plans. In the current squad, however, the signs of an expensive sale of a talent are rather bad.
Sepp van den Berg, Leighton Clarkson and Tyler Morton, who are currently on loan, would not bring in a significant transfer fee if sold, and Nat Philipps has not had a purchase offer in the past three transfer periods.
In addition to the many free transfers, players like Fabinho, Matip, Henderson or Thiago, who are on the wrong side of the 30-year mark, would not cause a rain of money. So Klopp would have to be willing to give up promising players like Gomez, Carvalho or Jones to get the big buzz. Or is even one of the top performers sacrificed?
Mohamed Salah: farewell to the superstar?
Mo Salah certainly didn’t sign a new contract to play in the Europa League or Conference League last summer. Accordingly, there were also isolated rumors about a possible farewell.
These were initially denied by the 30-year-old’s agent, but if there is certainty about the club’s near future in a few weeks, the cards could be reshuffled.
However, it is considered unlikely that Liverpool will let the Egyptian go in the summer. The Reds would rather forego new players than give up Salah.
This probably also applies to Diogo Jota, after there had recently been speculation that the Portuguese would not be averse to saying goodbye.
Liverpool FC: The impact on prestige
Finally, there is the image factor, which would suffer greatly from missing the CL.
When Klopp took over the club over seven years ago, the club were far from winning trophies. They played in the Europa League and were the kind of club that rested their players for the group stages of the Champions League (Real Madrid, 2014) because they didn’t think they could win them.
In his first full season, Klopp managed to return to the top flight, since then the Reds have played three of five finals and won one. Losing this prestige for the time being would be difficult to cope with. Especially as Arsenal, Manchester United and Chelsea herald a new era, Newcastle are improving rapidly and Manchester City have firmly established themselves at the top of the Premier League.
It may be years before Liverpool make it back into the top four.
